NFL Player Props
HC + BET signal picks with Edge/Vol scores, logged before kickoff.
OpenAnytime touchdown picks - Poisson model with red-zone usage proxy and game-total adjustment. Backtest in revision; methodology page lists current calibration status.
OpenEvery pick logged before kickoff. Every result graded against official NFL data. Bankroll chart from Week 1 forward.
OpenWhich defences concede most by position. 2024 season data available now; live 2026 data refreshes daily once the season starts.
OpenCorrelated player stacks for same-game parlays - QB+WR, game-pass, RB+opp-WR script flips. Joint probability and combined edge per stack.
OpenVegas-implied game environment mapped to position-level prop modifiers (Blowout · Shootout · Grind · Competitive).
Live Week 1Filter the full board by market, position, opponent, and minimum edge. Live picks blend with model projections so you can find your own edge.
OpenEvery NFL skill-position player. Season averages, L3/L5 trends, target share, and red-zone usage.
OpenFull plain-English reference: factor weights, situation multipliers, market-by-market signal thresholds, walk-forward validation results.
OpenWeek 1 picks land September 4
We'll email the first picks the morning of kickoff.
Backtested on 23,934 player-games
Five seasons of NFL data, walk-forward validated, with situation edge filters tuned per market. Below is what we found - including some non-obvious truths.
Key Findings (Counterintuitive)
See full methodologyImplied team total has r=+0.006 correlation with WR receiving yards. Zero predictive power. We removed it from the model.
Spread correlates with rushing yards (r=0.14) but adjusting for it INCREASES prediction error. Player season average already captures whether their team runs or passes.
TE receiving has the lowest win rate of any market (34.3% vs proxy lines). We require 15+ yard edge minimum before publishing any TE pick.