NFL Player Prop Analytics
95D · 19H · 32M · 01S2026 Season · Six-factor weighted model
Strong + BET signal picks with Edge/Vol scores. Free pick every week.
Every pick logged before kickoff. Every result verified against official NFL data.
Which defences concede most by position. 2024 season data available now.
NFL player database - browse all 32 teams. Stat lookups live now.
Pre-launch model projections vs hypothetical lines. See where the model finds edge before bookmakers post real lines.
Pick any 2026 game and see which situation edges activate — wind, dome, OL quality, defence quintile, early-week boosts.
Adjust the six factor weights, see how backtest accuracy changes.
Key matchups, DvP targets and players to watch each week.
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Backtested on 23,934 player-games
Five seasons of NFL data, walk-forward validated, with situation edge filters tuned per market. Below is what we found — including some non-obvious truths.
Key Findings (Counterintuitive)
See full methodology →Implied team total has r=+0.006 correlation with WR receiving yards. Zero predictive power. We removed it from the model.
Spread correlates with rushing yards (r=0.14) but adjusting for it INCREASES prediction error. Player season average already captures whether their team runs or passes.
TE receiving has the lowest win rate of any market (34.3% vs proxy lines). We require 15+ yard edge minimum before publishing any TE pick.