NFL Market Screener · Pre-launch projections
Where the model finds edge
Top 60 players ranked by absolute model-vs-hypothetical-line edge. Hypothetical lines = season avg × 0.95 (bookmaker convention). Real lines from sportsbooks arrive Sept 4. This shows where the model expects the biggest gaps.
yds
Loading projections…
How to read this
Season Avg is 2024 baseline (6+ game minimum). L5 is last 5 games — QB model blends 25% L5, others use 90% season + 10% L3. Model applies the validated weights from our 23,934-game backtest. Line = season avg × 0.95 (skill positions) or × 1.02 (QB — books tend to set above for QBs). Edge = model − line. Once real bookmaker lines flow Sept 4, the screener replaces hypothetical lines with live odds and the situation filters (defence quintile, wind, dome, total) kick in.