How the NBA model works
We project every player's stat line, compare it to the bookmaker's number, and publish only the gaps big enough to matter. No black box - here is every step.
How a pick is made
Blend the season line with recent form
The base projection blends a player's season average with rolling last-5, last-10 and last-20 game windows. The mix is weighted by playstyle archetype: a high-usage creator's recent games carry more signal than a low-minutes role player's, so their recent windows are weighted heavier.
Adjust for opponent and pace
The base number is scaled for the opponent - how many of that stat they concede to the position versus league average - and for the expected pace of the game. A projection into a fast, leaky matchup is worth more than the same number into a slow, elite defence.
Convert the gap to a z-score
The difference between the projection and the bookmaker line is divided by that stat's normal game-to-game volatility. A 2-point gap means something very different on a 27.5-point line than on a 6.5-assist line; the z-score puts every stat on one scale of how big the gap is relative to ordinary noise.
Only large gaps become picks
STRONG requires a gap of at least 1.0 standard deviations; Bet requires at least 0.5. Anything smaller is a Pass and never reaches the board. Most lines on most nights are priced about right - the model stays quiet until the gap is bigger than the noise.
What goes into a projection
Confidence tiers
Edge alone is not enough. Dividing the gap by the player's own volatility (the z-score) scores signal against noise, and only the two tiers below ever publish.
The markets we model
Six single markets - points, rebounds, assists, three-pointers, steals and blocks - each run their own model, alongside five combos (PRA, P+R, P+A, R+A and S+B). A combo is built by summing its component singles and is only flagged when every component agrees on direction, so combo picks are the rarest on the board.
How picks are graded
- Every pick is logged before tip-off. No retroactive edits.
- Results are graded against official NBA box scores.
- WIN = the stat finished in the picked direction. LOSS = wrong direction. VOID = player DNP or game postponed. PUSH = the stat landed exactly on the line.
- P&L assumes a flat stake at standard -110 vig (WIN +1.00u, LOSS -1.10u).
- Win rate counts only actionable outcomes (W + L); VOIDs and PUSHes are excluded from the rate.