How the AFL model works
We project each player's disposals against the line and publish only the bets the data rewards.
See the multi-sport framework—
Strong win rate
recorded · graded after each round
—
ROI
$1k flat stake
6
Inputs per prediction
weighted & blended
Every tool, free and Pro
The graded record and injury board are free; the model-derived boards and research are Pro.
What goes into a prediction
Every line is a weighted blend of six inputs around the player's baseline.
2026 formblendedCurrent-season disposal average - weighted higher as games build up.
2025 baselineblendedPrior full season, for a stable anchor early in the year.
Opponent±How many disposals this opponent concedes to the position vs league average.
Time on ground×More minutes means more disposals - scaled to expected TOG.
Role / CBA×Centre-bounce attendance lift for midfielders in the engine room.
Style + conditions×Run-and-carry vs contested, plus wet-weather and roof-venue adjustments.
Confidence tiers
Edge alone isn't enough. We divide edge by the player's volatility (Edge/Vol) to score signal vs noise.
High Conviction
E/V ≥ 1.4× threshold
Edge is large relative to the player's usual variance - at least 1.4 times the position threshold below.
BET
E/V ≥ threshold
Real edge that clears the position threshold: 0.50 for MID/DEF, 0.55 for RUCK - raised by 0.10 for high-volatility players (σ > 6) and 0.25 for extreme volatility (σ > 8).
SKIP
below threshold
A lean, but inside normal variance - not published. At most two picks per team-position combination make the board.
What we publish (and thin weeks)
The model flags 100+ edges a round. These rules cut it to the picks you see.
OVERs: High Conviction only
BET and LEAN OVERs lose money at standard vig in our data, so only HC OVERs are published.
UNDERs: stricter cut
UNDERs work at every tier but pass a tougher line, edge and tough-defence filter - the UnderTaker.
Some weeks are quiet on purpose
A handful of picks means the model is declining bad bets - not that nothing happened.
By position
MID / DEFpublishedMost efficient markets and our most profitable. Standard edge thresholds.
FWDanalysis onlyModel accuracy is ~38% - shown for context, never bet.
RUCKconservativeDisposals are a weak proxy for ruck impact, so the bar is high.
What it doesn't do
Where the edge comes from matters - so does where it stops.
Late injury & team newsWe don't scrape selections - always check the official team list before betting.
ForwardsFWD disposal prediction is a known weak spot, so FWDs are excluded from picks.
Early-season noiseOpponent data is thin before Round 6, so its influence is dialled back.
It's decision supportThe model finds statistical edges - it isn't a guarantee on any single bet.